Sha Tin (1st Jan 2025) Race 8 1400m G3

Difficult race to weigh up, I've decided on two for the short list, though there are a few that are close behind the short list selections.

Beauty Joy who has consistently good closing sectionals. Has been borderline G1 class, but now 8YO so cant be getting any better, though ran a cracker to be fast finishing third in the HKIR Mile running wide. Has won twice over 1400m though 1600m probably suits him better. 

Red Lion who ran a good 2nd in G1 Champions Mile (240428-ST-07) last season, prior to that 3rd in G2 Chairman's Trophy (240407-ST-08) and prior to that good 3rd in G1 over 1400m(240310-ST-07). 1400m is probably his best distance and very capable at G3. Body weight a bit high, but that may be a positive. High draw is a bit tricky.

My preference is for Red Lion who hasn't done much yet this season, though the John Size stable has only recently been showing good form. He has a high draw to contend with but the jockey booking and the rise in body weight imply to me that this is his target. Beauty Joy has the best ratings in my book, he ran a very good race to finish 3rd in the HKIR mile, but he is now an 8YO, so I suspect that he may not have recovered from that race. My selection is Red Lion, though his odds look to be on the short side, largely due to the jockey booking I expect, so I am hoping that he may drift before the off.

Sha Tin (22/12/24) Race 10 - 1200m C2

 Very competitive sprint, just what I like. Down to four in the short list.

Wunderbar Very promising sprinter. Very consistent speed horse, with good collateral figures. Likely favorite.

Gorgeous Win Ran wide from a wide draws at HV last twice. Good run in C2 at ST before that (241013-ST-10). Consistently good closing sectionals in good pace races. Has been troubled by wide runs, drawn wide again today. Has a good chance if he can save ground and finish off fast pace.

Raging Blizzard Just needed run first time out (241027-HV-10) but great ride by Avdulla from wide draw meant he saved ground and good effort to finish a close 3rd. Close 3rd next time behind Beauty Charge (241120-HV-08). Forget AW run LTO (241201-AW-07)

Bottemuptogether Lightly raced but proving to be a decent sprinter. Close form with Wunderbar (241013-ST-10). Didn't seem to stay 1400m LTO (241109-ST-07) but bled in that race. Well fancied today.

Wunderbar and Bottemuptogether are well fancied today though both likely to be underlays. I'm going for a small EW bet on Gorgeous Win. He has been plagued by wide draws this season, though the predicted fast pace today may allow him to go back onto the rail, save ground then use his good TOF to finish the race off well. Currently trading at 14/1 in the UK which is decent value in my book.

Hong Kong Mile (8th Dec 24) G1 1600m

This looks to be the most competitive of the HKIR races this year, especially after the retirement of Golden Sixty. Plenty of top class foreign entries are going to make life tough for the locals this year. I expect that the odds available in the Hong Kong PMU market will be pretty good for the foreigners.

I have narrowed it down to a short list of two, both lightly raced young foreigners who have shown top class form at home and who are open to improvement.

Jantar Mantar was very impressive last time out in the NHK Mile, however that was six months ago, which poses a question as Japanese horses usually need a prep run. 1600m is probably his best trip and I fully expect him to improve into a champion miler this year or next, he is still only a 3YO.

Lazzat is a French trained 3YO with very progressive record with six wins and a very close second last time in the Golden Eagle, an Australian G1 over 1500m. He usually races up with the speed, so maybe vulnerable to a closer. He was very impressive when winning the G1 Prix Maurice De Gheest at Deauville in August.

If as I expect these will go off at decent odds in Hong Kong, then I will be having an EW bet on each.

 

Sha Tin (24 Nov 2024) Race 7 - 1600m C2

 Competitive C2 at Sha Tin today. I've got it down to a short list of 2, though that's being optimistic.

GREEN N WHITE

Has improved lots this season (body wgt up also which must be significant) had 7 months rest due to fetlock injury. Won LTO (241109-ST-07) in first time C2 run, beating a few of these over 1400m. Untried over 1600m, but shouldn't be a problem . Has good speed figures and closing sectionals.

YOUNG CHAMPION

Decent form in IRE trained by Johnny Murtagh. Impressive C2 win over 1400m final run last season (240316-ST-09). Bled in seasonal debut (240922-ST-10). Finished fastest of all in good C2 over 1400m LTO (241109-ST-07). 1600m with decent draw should suit well today. Young horse with 4YO series target.

Selection

I am finding it difficult to split these two, Green N White has improved significantly this season and has potential to continue to a higher level, whereas Young Champion is also expected to deliver much better results this season, given the trainer and connections. I have a slight preference for Green N White, but will be having a win bet on each, both at around 5/1 in UK which seems fair value to me.