Race Analysis PDF
A Race Analysis PDF is produced for each race that I am interested in. Usually only for Class2 and above races.
Each PDF contains a section like the following describing different attributes of each horse.
Following is a description of each attribute, some are obvious, though others need some explanation.
Horse Section
Horse Name and Age are self explanatory
Trainer and Jockey are self explanatory
Draw includes draw range which is either Low, MidLow, MidHigh or High. I produce statistics and ratings on draw range not actual draw values.
Rest is number of days since last run
Wgt is horse body weight together with a percentage higher or lower than average for that horse. Lbs is the jockey weight to be carried by that horse.
Pace is a summary of the average distance beaten for each race pace that the horse has run in. The following possible race paces are included.
- SL - Slow
- GS - Good to Slow
- GD - Good
- GF - Good to Fast
- FA - Fast
Style is a summary of the racing style that the horse has shown, together with a count of each
- SP - Speed
- ST - Stalker
- CL - Closer
- RO - Ran On
- UN - Undefined
Form is the last 8 race placings, with the most recent on the left
Prog is the progression indicated by the rise or fall in Official Rating associated with the Form figures.
Ratings Section
Speed is the speed rating calculated for this horse for this race.
Final Points is the total of the Final Points for the last five races that this horse has run in. Please refer to the Speed Ratings page for more information.
Draw is the rating assigned to the Draw Range that this horse will run from
Trainer is the rating assigned to the trainer of the horse (basically strike rate multiplied by actual over expected rate). Please refer to the Ratings page for more information.
Jockey is the rating assigned to the jockey riding this horse (basically strike rate multiplied by actual over expected rate). Please refer to the Ratings page for more information.
Class is a simple average of speed rating and official rating.
Value Odds is an estimate based on the ranking of each of the above ratings, each of the rankings are averaged, then the average is treated as a power rating, the value is then applied to a formula to derive the odds.
Statistics Section
W,2,T is a count of winners, count of horses beaten less than or equal to 2 lengths and count of total contenders. A slight variation on W,P,T used by most organizations, I feel that the count of horses finishing within 2 lengths of the winner is more useful that count of placed horses.
2Pc is the percentage of horses with a LBW of 0-2 over total runners
All Runs are figures relating to all runs for that horse
C/D are figures relating to course and distance runs for that horse
Course are figures relating to course runs for that horse
Dist are figures relating to distance runs for that horse
Grade+ are figures relating to runs for that horse in race of grade equal or higher than the grade of the current race
Rest are figures relating to the range of days since the horse last ran. The range of days is defined as follows
- 1 - 14
- 15 - 28
- 29 - 42
- 43 - 56
- 57 - 84
- 85 - 999
Trainer, Jockey and Trn/Joc are figures associated with the current trainer, jockey and trainer plus jockey over the past three months.
LBW Comparisons
For the last five races of the current horse, this matrix gives the LBW (Lengths Behind Winner) compared with other horses that are also in the current race. The current horse column is shaded in grey.
If the background color of a particular cell in this matrix is green, then this indicates that the horse referred to as the collateral horse, ie the horse who's number is shown in the top row, is more than five pounds better off at today's weight than the selected horse compared with weights carried in the form race. Conversely if the background color or a particular cell in this matrix is red, then this indicates that the horse referred to as the collateral horse, ie the horse who's number is shown in the top row, is more than five pounds worse off at today's weight than the selected horse compared with weights carried in the form race.
Notes / Evaluation
I tend to categorize each horse, based on my opinion of their chance as Short List, Chance, Maybe, or Unlikely. Then this section contains a brief evaluation of my opinion of the chance of each horse.
Last 5 Races
This section shows the form of the last 5 races that the current horse ran in. The columns are generally self explanatory, though I will run through the descriptions below. After each race, the HKJC performance comment is included.
RaceId formatted at YYMMDD-Course-RaceNo where Course is ST or HV or AW
Grd is the race grade
Dist is the race distance in meters
Trk is the race track which are pre defined in Hong Kong (eg A, A+2, A+3, B, B+2, C, C+3 or AW)
Pce is the derived pace of the race being FA, GF, GD, GS, SL
TV is the Track Variant calculated for this race, shown as + or - decimal number. So if -ve then the track was slow so the par time is reduced by the TV value, vice versa if +ve then the track was riding fast, so the par time is increased by the TV value. The purpose of TV is to prevent excessive SPR values on fast tracks and vice versa for slow tracks.
Trainer/Jockey/Pos/Lbw/Sp/Wgt/Lbs/Drw/Ofr/Spr are self explanatory.
PP are the Pace Points as described in the Ratings page, but reflect the number of points faster or slower than Par that the horse ran the pace sections of this race.PF are the Final Points as described in the Ratings page, but reflect the number of points faster or slower than Par that the horse ran the final section of this race.
Stl is the derived style that the horse ran, eg SP (Speed), ST(Stalker), CL(Closer), RO(Ran On), UN(Undefined)
Section Pos is the horse's position at the end of each section of the race.
Section Spr is the calculated speed rating for this horse based on the time recorded for each section of the race. As mentioned already a SPR greater then 80 is fast and slower than 80 is slow, 80 is par.
Section Time is the HKJC time recorded recorded for the horse for each section of the race. I pay particular attention to a section time below 22 seconds especially in the final section, which is fast.