Hong Kong Mile (8th Dec 24) G1 1600m

This looks to be the most competitive of the HKIR races this year, especially after the retirement of Golden Sixty. Plenty of top class foreign entries are going to make life tough for the locals this year. I expect that the odds available in the Hong Kong PMU market will be pretty good for the foreigners.

I have narrowed it down to a short list of two, both lightly raced young foreigners who have shown top class form at home and who are open to improvement.

Jantar Mantar was very impressive last time out in the NHK Mile, however that was six months ago, which poses a question as Japanese horses usually need a prep run. 1600m is probably his best trip and I fully expect him to improve into a champion miler this year or next, he is still only a 3YO.

Lazzat is a French trained 3YO with very progressive record with six wins and a very close second last time in the Golden Eagle, an Australian G1 over 1500m. He usually races up with the speed, so maybe vulnerable to a closer. He was very impressive when winning the G1 Prix Maurice De Gheest at Deauville in August.

If as I expect these will go off at decent odds in Hong Kong, then I will be having an EW bet on each.

 

Sha Tin (24 Nov 2024) Race 7 - 1600m C2

 Competitive C2 at Sha Tin today. I've got it down to a short list of 2, though that's being optimistic.

GREEN N WHITE

Has improved lots this season (body wgt up also which must be significant) had 7 months rest due to fetlock injury. Won LTO (241109-ST-07) in first time C2 run, beating a few of these over 1400m. Untried over 1600m, but shouldn't be a problem . Has good speed figures and closing sectionals.

YOUNG CHAMPION

Decent form in IRE trained by Johnny Murtagh. Impressive C2 win over 1400m final run last season (240316-ST-09). Bled in seasonal debut (240922-ST-10). Finished fastest of all in good C2 over 1400m LTO (241109-ST-07). 1600m with decent draw should suit well today. Young horse with 4YO series target.

Selection

I am finding it difficult to split these two, Green N White has improved significantly this season and has potential to continue to a higher level, whereas Young Champion is also expected to deliver much better results this season, given the trainer and connections. I have a slight preference for Green N White, but will be having a win bet on each, both at around 5/1 in UK which seems fair value to me.